With just 40 days to go until Christmas, the Festive Project Management Team over at the North Pole is facing extra challenges in this very unusual – dare we say it – “unprecedented*” year. 2020 – the year that started off normal, but ended up with a March that is looking to last a whole 305 days…
One thing is already clear: it will be a festive season with a difference this year – likely small scale, possible partly online, and sadly – given that the end of the year is often a difficult one for many people – might well be an even greater mental struggle than normal, too. But then, what is “normal”? And do we know yet what “new normal” is? Whatever… Certainly, it will be “unprecedented”, however it turns out.
All I want for Christmas is my 2-dose vaccine…
The flurry of excitement at BioNTech and Pfizer’s announcement last week, that an over 90%-effective vaccine would become available and that they expected to produce 100 million doses by the end
of this year, has meant that all those involved in pharma supply chains are pulling together their task forces and readying up for the challenge. At this point, it is still unclear what and how
much is destined for where and how, exactly, and a number of national media statements tend to predict vaccine availability in their country by mid-2021, yet should the stuff go airborne next
month already, it will certainly take precedence over all other kinds of freight, so Santa is facing additional potential capacity shortages and/or exceptionally high rates to get his gifts
flown.
Sleigh bells ring…
The question is – will everybody get to hear them? With a number of airports closed or only partially working, the global network has shrunk, and the last mile could well be a very long stretch
from the main hubs… According to a Bloomberg article recently, around one third of the world’s almost 50,000 flight routes have been “wiped off the map” due to the pandemic. Given that
it is going to take at least 3-5 years for things to get back to 2019 levels, it is likely that Santa will need to move with the times and invest in drones – an increasing trend hampered more by
lacking or non-standardized regulations than by technical capabilities when it comes to loads and ranges.
Pieces on Earth…
Depending on which statistics you consult, the general consensus is that the pandemic has catapulted e-commerce forward 2, 5 or even 10 years in the space of just 5 or 6 months. The online
explosion in orders means that there are more boxes than normal requiring distribution these days – the U.S. e-commerce scene alone has seen a 50% increase in e-commerce volumes this year.
Perfect cargo for preighters, but that is disregarding the back-breaking work of having to load them all separately… Plus, the extra time involved in loading the plane – never mind the poor ROI
of this emergency capacity solution. The elves will need to get in early if everything is to arrive on time – and they will need to prepare themselves for a busy January when around 40% of those
shipments are sent back again. e-commerce goes both ways… A good chunk of what is ordered online, is returned for a number of reasons – often for free, too. Reverse Logistics has also become a
huge topic in last couple of years. Perhaps it is time to question Santa’s Carbon Footprint when it comes down to it?
There was no room at the inn…
Brexit coupled with the pandemic… With the various lockdowns across UK and Europe, currently, those pieces are causing another problem – namely bottlenecks in warehouses up and down the various
countries. Warehousing space has become the new gold or coffee beans when it comes to investing. Anyone with spare cash would be well-advised to tie it into storage space – particularly Bonded or
Customs Warehouses, now that Britain is hurtling out of the EU’s front door and will soon find itself queuing to get its import/export goods cleared – a national traditional pasttime and one the
population is generally very good at, but the length of those queues to come will be enough to test even the most stiff upper-lipped person’s patience. It’s five to twelve for the majority of
companies who were holding out for an ever more unlikely last-minute trade deal, and this has now led to panic applications for licenses to run bonded warehouses, to ensure their supply chains
are kept running. At the same time, companies are stock-piling goods in advance of Brexit to stave off expected delays in import deliveries. All this, of course, made more difficult by the
ongoing pandemic.
The multi-modal gift box?
Planes, trains, automobiles… and ships… With the imbalance in routes and the fluctuation in schedules, another huge problem is the lack of shipping containers and ULDs, as containers remain full
and delayed in various ports around the world, and returning air cargo pallets and containers falls victim to a lack of flights or – again – breakdown delays. With the grounding of such a huge
number of belly flights, some of those containers – for want of storage space – have also ended up grounded in the aircrafts’ bellies… Santa may well want to check out the ULD-data platform,
Skypooling, to source available capacities. It has seen a surge in usage over the past months.
Good will to all men…
“Before the coronavirus, the industry supported 65.5 million jobs—more than half of them indirectly through tourism—and had a global economic impact of US$2.7 trillion” reads a recent
Bloomberg article. The economic knock-on effect of an ailing aviation industry is huge and may make for a more frugal festive season, with an unsure outlook into the new year. If
“unprecedented” was one of the most heard words in all the industry-related webinars over the past 9 months, another, thankfully, has been “collaboration”: time and again, various
company and association representatives have talked about community, being stronger together, and collaborating to help each other out – be it in warehouse space, data-sharing, pooling resources,
or joining forces to brainstorm solutions to the upcoming COVID-19 vaccine challenge, for example. If there is one positive out of this pandemic, and something that will extend beyond the end of
this year, it is the sense of “we’re in this together and we will make things work.” On that note, Santa, you’re not alone!
[*2020’s most uttered webinar word according to CFG’s delicate elf ears, and one we hope will be replaced with more positive connotations in the new year…]
Brigitte Gledhill
We always welcome your comments to our articles. However, we can only publish them when the sender name is authentic.